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Aston Villa

r/avfc

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I don't know. I'm just hoping for the best.
16 hours ago
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Posted by17 hours ago

外围体育投注Looking to buy a retro villa top but can't decide which is my fave. I like the 1988 Mita Copers, and the 1992 Umbro with the lace. I quite like a couple of the Reebok ones too. Can't decide!

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Posted by1 day ago
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Posted by
'Ramblings of a happy clapping mad man.'
1 day ago

I know everyone's pretty excited about the possibility of Rashica signing (I know I am). However, having a look at his metrics (that I can get a hold of for free) for the last year there is reason to maybe temper our excitement just a little bit.

外围体育投注What I like to look at to get a sense of how directly productive an attacking player has been is their non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 (NPG90+A90). We take out penalties because they aren't really transferable between teams and 'artificially' inflate a player's stats and we use a 'per 90' basis so we can compare between players who played different amounts of time. Sticking goals and assists together allows us to compare a bit between players who might score/assist in different ratios and still get a sense of overall production.

We can then contrast this figure of how well they actually did, to their 'expected', figure (NPxG90+xA90), how many goals plus assists you'd expect a player on average to amass given the quality of shots that they had. Essentially this strips away finishing from the equation (which can vary a lot due to random variance) and lets us look at the underlying quality of their chance creation for themselves and their team.

So how does this apply to Rashica?

His stats from the past season show NPG90+A90 of 0.57. That is very good, the best in our team was Hourihane with 0.46. However, his underlying numbers give real cause for concern as his NPxG90+xA90 is a frankly pathetic 0.27 (again our best was Hourihane with 0.43.. and Wesley, who people were far from happy with had a 0.37... 0.27 is actually the same figure Samatta has managed in a Villa shirt). So both he and his teammates (more worryingly) scored more than expected from the shots he had/provided by a significant amount.. which is a bit of a red flag as it could potentially be unsustainable.

That said, the year before last (18/19) his numbers were much better (to a point where if he'd repeated them we'd have had no chance of getting him). Here he had an NPG90+A90 of 0.81! (for context Sadio Mane had a 0.82 this season).. with his NPxG90+xA90 being 0.57. So again he over performed his expected goal contributions, although in this case the expected tally is already extremely healthy so it's not as much of an issue.

What this hints at, smallish sample size aside (he only played 2295 and 1571 minutes in the last two years), is that he's maybe been a bit lucky with his finishing/the finishing of his teammates in the last couple years (he scored 4.17 more goals and picked up 3.06 more assists than you'd expect). However, the fact it's happened two years in a row perhaps implies he's an above average finisher anyway so even if his performance regresses to the mean hopefully it won't completely divebomb.

It's worth noting that Bremen were significantly worse last year than they were the year before and it's hard to untangle whether that's because Rashica wasn't quite as good, or whether he wasn't quite as good because外围体育投注 Bremen as a whole were worse around him.

Either way, this last season saw a huge fall off in his underlying stats so we're going to need him to either

外围体育投注A) keep outperforming them as he has done previously or

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Posted by1 day ago
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About Community

This is the subreddit dedicated to Aston Villa, an English football club based in Birmingham. They play at Villa Park, managed by one of our own, Dean Smith. Whether you are a diehard fan, or someone new to football, everyone is welcome!
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Created Oct 12, 2010

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